Moderna misses analysts’ estimates – Q3 2021

mRNA COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna Inc. announced its earnings report on Thursday before the market opened.  The firm generated revenue of $5.0 billion and diluted EPS of $7.70, figures below analysts’ expectations.

Key Highlights:  

  • Q3 total revenue of $5.0 billion, net income of $3.3 billion and diluted EPS of $7.70
  • U.S. FDA granted Priority Review to the Biologics License Application for Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine
  • Interim data from Phase 2/3 KidCOVE study of mRNA-1273 in children ages 6 to under 12 years shows vaccine efficacy of 100% two weeks after first dose of mRNA-1273 at 50 µg dose level
  • First participants dosed in Phase 3 study of cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate (mRNA-1647)
  • Introducing inhaled pulmonary therapeutics modality:Vertex and Moderna cystic fibrosis mRNA therapeutic (VXc-522) IND-enabling first-in-human studies ongoing
  • Company continues to scale with 37 programs in development, including 21 in ongoing clinical studies

CEO statement:

“We are humbled to have helped hundreds of millions of people around the world with our COVID-19 vaccine and yet we know our work is not done. We will not rest until our vaccine is available to anyone who needs it, and we are working hard to ensure our vaccine is available in low-income countries with approximately 10% of our 2021 volume and significantly more of our 2022 volume going to low-income countries. It is promising to see the real-world evidence showing that the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine shows sustainably high, durable efficacy.”

Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna

Analysts Estimate:  

EPS: $9.01, according to Zacks Investment Research, based on 8 analysts’ forecasts.  

The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $-0.59.  

Revenue: $6.23 billion  

Earnings History:  

Moderna released its Q2 earnings report on 5th August 2021.  

The company reported $6.46 EPS for the last quarter, beating analysts’ estimates of $6.01 by $0.45. The business had generated revenue of $4.35 billion versus analysts’ estimates of $4.23 billion. It had a return on equity of 88.13% and a net margin of 49.79%. Moderna’s revenue for the quarter was up 6457.2% on a year-over-year basis. The firm’s net income was $2.8 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2021.  

During the same period a year ago, the company posted $0.31earnings per share and a net loss of $(117) million.   

Annual Forecast:  

On average, analysts expect Moderna to report $29 EPS for the current fiscal year (2021) and $27 EPS for the next fiscal year (2022). For the fourth quarter, EPS is estimated to be $10.63. The estimated Revenue generation for the next quarter is $7.62 billion and for the current year and next year are $20.2 billion and $20.08 billion respectively.  

Future Plans:  

On November 1, 2021, Moderna announces a pledge to achieve Net-Zero carbon emissions globally by 2030 as part of its commitment to sustainability. Moderna aims to earn up to $20 billion this year from its 2020 APAs (Advance Purchase Agreement). It could anticipate another $20 billion in revenue in 2022 and 2023, or possibly more, implying a greater stock price. By 2022, the supply forecast is between 2 billion to 3 billion doses, depending on the final dose approved by the regulators for the booster.  

The company plans to conduct a share repurchase program, establish a charitable foundation, establish the Moderna International Business Services Center and build mRNA vaccine plant in Africa.  

Company Profile:  

Moderna, Inc. is a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based pharmaceutical and biotechnology business that specializes in RNA therapies, particularly mRNA vaccines. To elicit an immunological response, these vaccines use a copy of a molecule called messenger RNA (mRNA).  

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